Dana White says UFC on Fox 5's Shogun Rua-Alexander Gustafsson fight to determine No. 1 contender

By: Jamie Penick, MMATorch Editor-in-Chief

For the second straight Fox event, Mauricio "Shogun" Rua may be fighting for a title shot in the light heavyweight division. Or he might not be.

That's the admittedly wobbly word from UFC President Dana White, who said on Thursday that the Shogun-Alexander Gustafsson fight is likely to provide the next challenger in the light heavyweight division. Unless it doesn't.

"Look at the fights that Shogun has had in his past two or three fights," White said (transcribed by MMAFighting.com). "There's no doubt about it, he is the gatekeeper right now to that title. So, if Alexander can beat Shogun, he'd get the shot. Shogun wins, he gets it. Unless there's some crazy s*** that happens, which always does."

The other fight that will try to make a claim for a title shot is between Dan Henderson and Lyoto Machida in February, but neither fighter is in the UFC President's good graces after August and September. The two months saw Henderson go down with a knee injury that led to UFC 151 being canceled, and Machida turn down two different dates for a fight with Jon Jones.

Penick's Analysis: Henderson's being held as responsible as Jones for UFC 151, and if the UFC is really going with the Shogun-Gustafsson winner, it's being vindictive against both him and Machida. What's even more of a shame on that front is that their bout is more than likely only going to be a three round fight with the news that Ronda Rousey is fighting Liz Carmouche on that card. I think it's still more likely that Henderson-Machida determines the No. 1 contender, just because of the timing. Jones-Sonnen doesn't take place until the end of April, that's four months after this weekend's event. The Shogun-Gustafsson winner can fight someone on that card in a sensible No. 1 contender fight, but they'd have to be out for nine to ten months at best if they were crowned No. 1 contender after Saturday night.

[Shogun Rua art by Grant Gould (c) MMATorch.com]

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Source: http://www.mmatorch.com/artman2/publish/UFC_2/article_15220.shtml

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